Depletion is not the same as bankruptcy, and the 2026 report draws a sharp line between the retirement fund, the combined program and a disability fund projected solvent for 75 years.
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, published on June 9, 2026, projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, at which point 78% of scheduled benefits would remain payable. Taking the retirement and disability funds together, the combined OASDI projection is depletion in the third quarter of 2034, with 83% of scheduled benefits payable after that. Both numbers are projections produced by the Trustees, not decisions.
What depletion means, and what it does not
A trust fund is the reserve Social Security has built up over the years from payroll tax revenue that exceeded what it paid out. Depletion means that reserve is exhausted. It does not mean the program’s income stops, and it does not mean benefits stop.
That is precisely what the two percentages describe. The Trustees’ summary of the 2026 report states that after depletion the program would still be able to pay 78% of scheduled OASI benefits, and 83% on the combined basis, out of continuing income. Depletion is therefore a projected shortfall against what the law promises, not a shutdown, and it is a date that has moved in past reports as the economic assumptions behind it have changed.
What 78% would look like in dollars
An illustration makes the scale clearer. SSA’s Monthly Statistical Snapshot for July 2026 put the average retired-worker benefit at $2,085.98 a month. Applying the Trustees’ 78% figure to that average gives roughly $1,627 a month, and the combined 83% figure gives roughly $1,731. Those are arithmetic examples on a published average, not official SSA amounts, and no such reduction is scheduled or in effect today.
The disability fund is on a different track
The report separates the disability side of the program. The Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund on its own is projected to remain solvent through the full 75-year window the Trustees examine.
That distinction matters, because the depletion dates most often quoted are either the OASI date or the combined date. On its own terms, the fund that supports the 6.99 million disabled workers receiving SSDI as of July 2026, at an average of $1,635.27 a month, is not the source of the projected shortfall.
Two bipartisan bills are sitting in Congress
Two measures relevant to the program’s finances have been introduced in the current Congress. Neither has become law, and neither has a reported outcome.
- S. 4979, the PROMISE Act of 2026, introduced on July 14, 2026 by Senators Bill Cassidy and Dick Durbin, with bipartisan co-sponsors.
- H.R. 9187, the Bipartisan Social Security Commission Act, introduced on June 10, 2026 by Representatives Tom Cole and Thomas Suozzi.
It is worth remembering that an introduced bill is a proposal. What either measure would do to the Trustees’ projections, and whether either advances at all, is not something that can be stated today.
What happens in the meantime
Nothing in the June report changes any payment now being made. The last Social Security payment of August is due on Wednesday, August 26, to beneficiaries born between the 21st and the 31st, and the September calendar runs from the SSI payment on Tuesday, September 1 through the fourth-Wednesday payment on September 23.
The Trustees publish these projections annually, and the dates in them are estimates that shift with wage growth, employment and inflation. Between now and the fourth quarter of 2032 there will be several more reports, and any change to the benefit formula or to the program’s revenue would have to come from Congress.
