The advocacy group had put the figure at 3.8% only nine days earlier, and the official number will not exist until the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September inflation on October 14.
The Senior Citizens League has cut its projection for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to 3.6% in an estimate published on August 12, 2026, down from the 3.8% it had forecast on August 3. The revision followed the July reading of the CPI-W, the inflation index the law ties benefits to, which rose 3.4% year over year. This is a projection produced by a private advocacy organization, not a figure from the Social Security Administration (SSA), which is expected to announce the real number on Wednesday, October 14, 2026.
What the CPI-W actually measures, and why only three months count
The COLA is not set by negotiation or by SSA’s discretion. By law it is the increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of the last year that produced a COLA to the third quarter of the current year. That is to say, only three monthly readings decide the outcome: July, August and September 2026.
July is already on the books at 3.4%. The August figure is due from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 11, and the September figure on Wednesday, October 14, the same day SSA is expected to confirm the adjustment. Until that third number lands, every percentage in circulation is an estimate, however carefully built.
Two estimates, two different numbers
The Senior Citizens League’s 3.6% projection of August 12 is not the only one. Independent analyst Mary Johnson, working from the same July data on the same day, put the 2027 COLA at 3.4%. The gap between the two is a reminder that a forecast made with one of three months in hand is a forecast, and that a cooling or accelerating August could move both.
By way of comparison, the COLA actually applied in January 2026 was 2.8%, which SSA said was worth roughly $56 a month to the average retiree.
What 3.6% would look like in dollars
The arithmetic below is an illustration, not an official calculation, and it applies the 3.6% estimate to the average benefit amounts SSA reported in its Monthly Statistical Snapshot for July 2026:
- Average retired worker, $2,085.98 a month: an increase of about $75.
- Average SSDI disabled worker, $1,635.27 a month: an increase of about $59.
- SSI federal benefit rate for an individual, $994 a month: an increase of about $36.
Those figures would apply to roughly 6.99 million disabled workers on SSDI and 7.3 million SSI recipients, alongside the retired-worker population. Even so, the real increase for any individual depends on their own benefit amount, and for people enrolled in Medicare the net change in the deposit also depends on the Part B premium, which is not set for 2027 either.
What happens next
Nothing about the 2027 adjustment is settled before October 14. Two of the three deciding months are still unpublished, and the difference between 3.4% and 3.8% is worth roughly $8 a month on the average retirement benefit, by the same illustrative arithmetic.
It is worth remembering the sequence: the September 11 CPI release narrows the range, the October 14 release closes it, and SSA’s announcement follows immediately. The new percentage then takes effect with January 2027 payments. Until then, readers should treat 3.6%, 3.4% and any other number as what they are: estimates, each with a name attached to it.
